+1 on everything you said. wise words my friend

actually i'm trying to change (whenever my money allows that) all my gig guitars into carbon. if i can choose, i'll never play live (specially traveling by airplane) with a wood guitar i have to baby all the time. my tranquility is more important than some little nuaces that the amplification of the venues will not reproduce

i would agree with everything you are saying except your point about carbon guitars being an investment.   Superior to wood in many ways and they are my main guitar for now and I am sure the future.  But to be a good investment it takes a lot of things.  Carbon guitar are still evolving, will there be a better carbon mousetrap in the future, maybe.   Could current carbons become obsolete because of advances?  Will rare carbon brands increase in value.  Not sure on that one that really depends on future tastes which are impossible to call.   Why is a 1959 Les Paul burst worth $250,000 not sure that has anything to do with the quality of the instrument.  It is so many things that are beyond your control.   I bought this year a vintage voiced tobacoo burst CA legacy new, right before the went under.  It was a custom order and maybe the only vintage voice TB Legacy out there.  Rare yes, will I be able to sell it at a profit, somehow I doubt it.

Steve

Well, one thing I have noticed both here and over on AGF is that, despite the depressed economy, people ARE spenidng money - and LOTS of it (though the AGF classifieds are certainly full of high end guitars for sale too).  There seems to be constant talk/discussion of people buying guitars, amplifiers, and various doodads for said guitars and amplifiers.  I think that is great.  As long as the money continues to move, we have a chance at getting out of the recession at some point (though I realize that guitars represent only a small portion of the total economy).  I see restaurants around my area doing a brisk business and it always seems that shopping center parking lots are full during off-work hours (i.e. evenings and weekends, and even during week days).  So money is moving, though I have ceased to be a part of that because I am looking to retire during my lifetime.

Personally, I view the guitar as a tool to make music with, so whether my Cargos will be worth anything to somebody else in the future is really of little concern to me.  Since I really like and use my Cargos on a daily basis, and my liking them has gone way past the typical new toy honeymoon period, I know they are "keepers" (i.e. if I had to sell something to make some fast money, the Cargos would be the last of my possessions to go).  I am not particularly concerned that some future carbon fiber instrument will be far superior to my Cargos unless my Cargos start to fall apart or otherwise develop problems or lose their tone.  Supposedly, a carbon fiber instrument will remain what it was when it was purchased for a very, very long time.  If that really turns out to be true, then I should not need another guitar for a very, very, long time.  It is certainly possible that we really don't know whether certain ways of building these carbon fiber instruments could develop serious problems in the future (and whether CA Guitars will fall prey to that), but if that time comes, hopefully there will be somebody making a carbon fiber instrument with the same dimensions as the Cargo, though I doubt there will be an EXACT replica, especially since few people really want that short scale as I do.

To me, carbon fiber seems to be a very worthwhile substitute for the traditional woods that have long been said to be in increasingly short supply.  As makers have experimented with alternative woods (with varying degrees of success), maybe carbon fiber will become more mainstream as a viable alternative in the coming years.  The potential stumbling block to that might be the cost of manufacturing using carbon fiber, at least that has been pointed out many times in forum discussions when the subject has come up.

Tony

In terms of proliferation,  yes, the (far) future belongs to Carbon Fiber guitars,  especially as woods become increasingly scarce.  Most guitars will be made off CF.  Wood guitars will still be produced, but they will become very expensive and cater only to a small market segment.

This makes wood guitars a much better investment prospect than CF.   Wood guitars are resource-based products:  once supply of resources (woods) is depleted, the price will shoot up, e.g. brazillian rosewood.  On the other hand, CF guitars are technology-based products:  materials are more readily available and in abundance, quality will continue to increase as relevant technology develops.  One day, the present CF guitars will become "obsolete" as technology will allow the creation of some really amazing, much much better, CF guitars.  Imagine a Cargo-size carbon fiber guitar, with folding-neck, that is tuned to sound like (and as loud as) an adirondack - brazillian rosewood pre-war Martin dreadnaught. 

There are a lot of ways to look at the economics of CF.  I think we all agree that rarity is one engine of value.   Carbon Fiber guitars may become as common as dirt, but the ones we have, the early ones, the limited production ones, I think these will ultimately become the collector items.

I doubt wood is going anywhere.  They can build guitars out of any type of wood.  Wood is renewable, and honestly, with the exception of the finish, is probably far  "greener" to build than any carbon fiber guitar.  Carbon fiber will remain a niche item until all other alternatives are either exhausted or too expensive to build with, much like carbon fiber bike frames, car parts, airplanes, etc.  They'll stop building wood guitars when they stop building wood houses and furniture.  

Consumers as a rule are notoriously stupid and very negative.  Look at guitar forums.  (present company excluded) 

The supplies of Brazilian Rosewood became depleted because of demand for furniture and floors, not guitars.  All things considered, from an environmental perspective, guitar building is pretty benign.  

ken

From what I have read, much of the rarity of Brazilian rosewood can be attributed to the clearing of land for farming (i.e. not so much due to demand of consumers for furniture and other wood products).  That Brazilian wood was just destroyed.  By the way, I do have a handmade Brazilian classical guitar built by Manuak Papazian in 1974.  the Brazilian rosewood is not "flamed", but is instead very straight, though it does look dinstinctly different from Indian rosewood.  My understanding is that this is what good quarter-sawn Brazilian looks like.

Tony